Blown leads are nothing new to the Toronto Maple Leafs. The tortured franchise that has become known for collapsing at the wrong moment and has suffered its fair share of heartbreak over the past, oh, half century. Even so, there are some that sting a little extra.
The collapse on Monday night to the lowly Ottawa Senators may be up there in terms of regular season losses. While it’s too early to call these games any more high stakes than the obligatory “all games are equal importance,” a loss to provincial rival and Division basement dweller Ottawa certainly feels significant.
To make matters worse, one win probability model clocked the blown lead in as the worst regular season blown lead in over 10 years. According to Evolving Wild, an NHL advanced statistics account that contributes to other known accounts such as Hockey Graphs, the eventual 6-5 overtime loss had a win probability peaking at 99.9113%, directly after scoring the 2nd period goal to take a 5-1 lead.
It’s the highest win probability according to this particular model since a January 9th, 2010. Over 11 years ago.
The model dates back 13 seasons, and this Minnesota Wild comeback win over the Chicago Blackhawks is the only game to have a higher probability based on this model. That difference was 0.0004%.
The Leafs will have a chance to set the record straight when they take on the Sens Wednesday and Thursday. Immediate redemption, or a disappointing trio of games against one of the league’s most struggling teams?
(H/T Evolving Wild)
